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Publishing the results of thoughtfully designed research projects allows contemporary investigators to revisit the findings years later. The willingness of academics to make specific predictions about the impact of introducing user-choice principles into a state vocational education and training market has enabled comparisons to be drawn using extensive statistical collections. These data sets do not cover each of the forecasts; for example, employer reactions to increased marketisation can only be inferred. However, extensive information has been recorded on the training provider and student responses. The jurisdiction under study has a long history of centralised government decision-making and bureaucratic regulatory control; which allows for a substantial level of confidence in the causal relationship between public policy implementation and outcomes observed in the vocational education and training market. By making data-driven comparisons between what was hypothesised and the results over a long period of time, it is re-affirmed that good research is relevant and can assist governments in achieving their intended public policy priorities.

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This paper will explore the results of more than two decades of bi-partisan policy consistency (Zoellner 2013, pp. 144-8) aimed at increasing the amount of choice available to consumers of marketised VET services as an important mechanism in the encouragement of Australians to increase their commitment to lifelong learning. The introduction of training packages in 1999 allowed VET qualifications to be commoditised in order to facilitate the operations of training markets (Wheelahan 2015, p. 127). Pre-training package 1998 will be used as one comparison point for the examination of national data sets on enrolment patterns in these training products as well as student characteristics of those enrolled in the national training system. If the implementation of consumer choice in the various state and territory competitive VET marketplaces has facilitated increased commitment to lifelong learning, it should be expected that increased numbers of students are studying in a wider range of occupations with improved access to the more than 4,000 training providers operating in the training market (National Centre for Vocational Education Research 2018b, p. 5). The performance of New South Wales (NSW) will be compared to these national trends.

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