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In this nine minute interview, Steve Davis talks with Tom Karmel about the report 'Attrition in the trades' [available in VOCEDplus at TD/TNC 104.36]. This report investigates attrition in the trades by comparing the rate at which tradespeople leave their occupation with that of professionals. It also determines whether attrition is influenced by economic conditions, and if a trade can provide a good start to a career in the professions. The report concludes that attrition in the trades is no higher than in the professions; the rate of leaving particular occupations may vary, but overall the results between the two are very similar. The economic climate also makes little difference to the attrition rate.

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This paper estimates the completion rate of VET course enrolments with a mathematical modelling approach in order to fill a gap in performance measures for the sector. The technique used is to track all VET course enrolments within a three-year window, centred on the year of interest. Then, using an absorbing Markov chain model for a VET course enrolment, to estimate the proportion of VET course enrolments commencing in the year of interest that will eventually be completed. This approach allows an estimate of the completion rate without the necessity to track course enrolments longitudinally over a long period of time. Course enrolments at certificate III level had the highest rate of completion at 33.5 per cent compared with other qualification levels. One of the distinctive characteristics of the VET sector is that many students wish to learn specific skills and have no intention of completing a full qualification. For these students a more sensible measure of success is the proportion of modules passed (the load pass rate). Overall, the load pass rate of 2005 enrolments was 79.1 per cent. Show less

In late 2008, NCVER commissioned six people to write essays about competition in the Australian training market. Most were from outside the vocational education and training (VET) sector. In order to ensure their ideas were tied into current concerns within VET, NCVER went on to invite six insiders to respond to the essays. The results from both groups are contained in this volume. It should be noted that the participants in this exercise do not entirely agree with each other. But there is general acknowledgement that the risks associated with the state determining the supply and demand for training mean that governments cannot retreat from the training market. However, the role of the state, relative to that of individuals and employers, remains contentious. Papers and their responses include: Markets and central planning in meeting labour market needs: lessons from higher education / Andrew Norton, discussant: Leslie Loble; A market for vocational education and training in the Australian Federation / Mark Burford, discussant: Pat Forward; Competition policy and the VET sector / Richard Denniss, discussant: Megan Kirchner; Contestability, information asymmetry and quality signals in a competitive training market / Terri Seddon, discussant: Robyn Tudor; Improving information flows for users of post-secondary education / Nicholas Gruen, discussant: Gerald Burke; Possible governance structures and autonomy of TAFE institutes / V. Lynn Meek; discussant: Michael Keating. Show less

As part of the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) work on skills, there has been a policy push to increase the number of people completing higher-level vocational education and training (VET) qualifications: diplomas and advanced diplomas. The foundation for this paper was a set of projections prepared by the Centre for the Economics of Education and Training (CEET) which pointed to a significant shortfall in people with diploma and advanced diploma-level qualifications in 2016. The paper outlines recent trends in the provision of these qualifications; overall there has been virtually no growth over the period 2003-07, with growth in some areas offset by declines in others. It also looks at how those with diplomas and advanced diplomas are faring in the labour market. The picture is rather mixed, suggesting that people with diplomas and advanced diplomas fare, on average, better than those with other vocational qualifications or no post-school qualifications, but face severe competition from degree holders and others who have obtained skills through experience. Show less

At every five-yearly census, the Australian Bureau of Statistics recalculates both the SEIFA (Socio-economic Indexes for Areas) indexes and also recalibrates the borders and sizes of the geographic areas from which these SEIFA measurements are derived. The NCVER reports vocational education and training (VET) participation rates at least annually, and the question that arises is how well the SEIFA indexes perform over the interim years. The authors find that there is little distortion in the measurement of participation in the intervening periods.

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The National Review of Nursing Education 2002 was initiated in April 2001 to examine the future nursing educational needs of the health, community and aged care system in Australia and to provide advice on appropriate education policy and funding frameworks. The Review examined the effectiveness of current arrangements for the education and training of nurses, labour market factors affecting the employment of nurses and the choice of nursing as an occupation, and the key factors driving the demand for, and supply of, nursing education and training. The Review sought to make recommendations on models of nursing education and training, the types of skills and knowledge required, and mechanisms for attracting new recruits to nursing and encouraging the commitment to lifelong learning of those already engaged in nursing. The Review commissioned a wide range of research and six literature reviews. This report focuses on workforce models built for both university trained registered nurses and enrolled nurses trained in the vocational education sector. It is presented in five sections: the first section looks at the changes that have occurred in the nursing workforce during the 1990s, specifically looking at the major employment trends; the second section, using 'shift-share analysis' and primarily concerned with demand considerations, examines in detail the changes in the employment of nurses; in the third section, a dynamic model is built focusing on the supply side to better understand the relationship between nursing numbers, inflows of new graduates and migrants and outflows from the occupation; section four focuses on the interaction of demand and supply in the nursing workforce by comparing projections based on the two models; the final section offers the conclusion of the study. Details of the models and the data are described in a series of appendices.

The volume from which this paper is taken is indexed at TD/TNC 71.717; individual papers are indexed from TD/TNC 71.718 to TD/TNC 71.720. The final report of the National Review of Nursing Education 2002 is indexed at TD/TNC 71.180.

This paper was also presented at the 6th National Conference of the Centre for the Economics of Education and Training (CEET). The collection of papers from this conference is indexed at TD/TNC 71.486. Show less

In this paper it is argued that neither a simple definition of vocational education and training (VET) nor qualification levels are helpful. It discusses what does constitute VET in Australia. It suggests that VET is distinguished from higher education (HE) by different funding and regulatory arrangements, and teaching and learning styles. What confuses the issue is that many providers deliver both higher education and VET courses. Show less

Apprenticeships have a very long history in Australia, building on the traditions of the medieval guilds. The essence of the apprenticeship is the contract of training - a legal contract between an individual, an employer and a training provider. The defining characteristic is the combination of employment and training. The purpose of this occasional paper is to describe what we know about apprenticeships and traineeships, with a view to assessing the likely impact of the current economic downturn on them.

An interview with Tom Karmel about this report is indexed at TD/TNC 97.31. Show less

The ageing society has been attracting the attention of policy makers in Australia and in many other countries. This paper considers the labour market for the traditional trades in Australia over the next 40 years and investigates whether the ageing society will pose a workforce problem. The broad conclusion is that the ageing society will significantly impact on the size of the potential trades workforce, but that this is unlikely to result in shortages. Rather, any shortage is more likely to occur if the trades lose their attractiveness relative to other occupations. Moreover, the age distribution of the trades workforce will remain largely unaltered. Show less

The authors examine factors that influence young people’s plans to complete Year 12, their aspirations to commence university study in the first year after leaving school and their expected occupation at age 30. They also examine the extent to which the occupational aspirations of teenagers align with their actual job outcomes a decade later. The findings in this report demonstrate just how important parents and peers are in relation to young people’s aspirations. The findings also indicate that the aspirations of 15-year-olds are somewhat unrealistic. By age 25 years, which is the age until which data are available for analysis, a significant portion of young people fall short of what they set out to achieve occupationally. However, this does not mean that they cannot achieve their desired occupations at a later stage in life.

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