The perfect storm: graduating in a recession in a segmented labor market

This paper analyzes the effects of entry labor-market conditions on workers' career in Spain, a country well known for its highly segmented labor market and rigid labor-market institutions. In contrast with more flexible labor markets, [the authors] find that the annual earnings losses of individuals without a university degree are greater and more persistent than those of college graduates. For workers without a college degree, the effect is driven by a lower likelihood of employment. For college graduates, the negative impact on earnings is driven by both a higher probability of non-employment, and employment in jobs with fixed-term contracts. While a negative shock increases mobility of college graduates across firms and industries, there is no earnings recovery, just secondary labor-market job churning. [The authors'] results are consistent with tight regulations of the Spanish labor market such as binding minimum wages and downward wage rigidity caused by collective bargaining agreements.

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